Calibrating Your Confidence

You cannot think your way out of the Dunning-Kruger effect, but you can build systems to counter it:

• Seek feedback from people with verified expertise, not just opinions
• Test yourself with objective measures rather than self-assessment
• Treat strong confidence in a new field as a warning sign, not a green light
• Check the base rate of mastery — most skills take years, not hours
• Practice saying "I don't know" — the most intellectually honest phrase available

The paradox of expertise is that the more you learn, the more uncertain you become. That discomfort is not a bug. It is the feeling of your calibration improving.