Hindsight Bias in History

History textbooks are hindsight bias in printed form. World War I seems inevitable in retrospect because we know what happened. But the diplomats of 1914 lived in genuine uncertainty, weighing dozens of possible outcomes that could have gone another way.

The same trap hides in technology. The personal computer feels like an unstoppable revolution today, yet many insiders once dismissed it as a toy with no real market. Treating any outcome as obvious in hindsight robs us of the lessons it actually teaches.