The Chain of Inference

Getting from clue to conclusion requires building reliable inferential chains:

• Observation — what exactly do you see, hear, measure? (Stick to facts, not interpretations)
• Hypothesis — what possible explanations fit the observations?
• Testing — what additional evidence would confirm or refute each hypothesis?
• Convergence — do multiple independent lines of evidence point the same way?

Each step can go wrong. Observations can be biased. Hypotheses can be too narrow. Tests can be poorly designed. Convergence can be faked by cherry-picking. Strong reasoning means auditing every link in the chain, not just checking the final answer.