Reasoning Like a Detective

To move reliably from clues to conclusions, follow these principles:

• Separate observation from interpretation — record what you see before deciding what it means
• Demand multiple independent pieces of evidence before accepting a conclusion
• For every clue, ask: "What else could explain this?"
• Be skeptical of narrative evidence — stories that feel compelling but lack data
• Even strong evidence only makes a conclusion probable, not certain

The best detectives and scientists share one trait: they stay comfortable with uncertainty and change their conclusion when new evidence arrives.