The Statistical Mistake

The core error in stereotyping is confusing group averages with individual predictions:

• Overlap is massive — even when group averages differ, the overlap between groups is almost always larger than the difference. Most people are closer to members of other groups than to the extremes of their own.
• Base rate neglect — a few dramatic examples create an impression that does not match the actual frequency.
• Ecological fallacy — applying a group statistic to one person is a logical error. A group average tells you almost nothing about any specific member.