When Abduction Goes Wrong

Abductive reasoning has characteristic failure modes. Premature closure means settling on the first plausible explanation. Anchoring means being unable to abandon an initial hypothesis even when evidence shifts.

The remedy is generating multiple hypotheses before evaluating any. A mechanic who lists several possible causes of a rattle before reaching for a wrench is far less likely to miss the real fault than someone who chases the first idea. The discipline of considering alternatives prevents premature lock-in.