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LESSON 4 · The Mental Models Playbook

This is not a preference for simplicity over accuracy. Occam's Razor works because every additional assumption introduces another chance for error. Fewer moving parts means fewer points of failure, and explanations that survive testing tend to be leaner.

When your internet drops, the simplest explanation is a loose cable or a provider outage — not a government conspiracy. When a colleague misses a deadline, exhaustion or miscommunication is far more likely than sabotage. The boring explanation deserves first consideration every time.

Occam's Razor does not guarantee the simple answer is correct. It says start there and only add complexity when evidence demands it. This discipline prevents you from building elaborate theories on thin foundations.