Why Simpler is More Likely

The mathematical basis of Occam's Razor is probability theory:

• Each assumption reduces probability — if each assumption has a 90% chance of being true, two assumptions together have an 81% chance, three have 73%, and so on
• Complex explanations multiply uncertainty — the more moving parts in an explanation, the more things can be wrong
• Simple models generalize better — in machine learning and science, simpler models predict new data better because they capture signal rather than noise
• Nature tends toward simplicity — physical laws are remarkably simple. E=mc² describes a fundamental truth in five characters.