The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect is usually described as low performers overestimating their ability because they lack the skill to judge performance accurately. The basic pattern has support, but the dramatic popular version is often oversimplified.

The mechanism: competence and the ability to judge competence rely on the same skills. If you lack the skills to perform well, you also lack the skills to recognize you are performing poorly.

Experts underestimate themselves because they know how much they don't know. Be suspicious of extreme confidence — especially your own. True expertise comes with qualified confidence: "I believe X, but I could be wrong about Y."