Everyday Probability Traps

The gambler's fallacy says that after five heads in a row, tails is "due." The coin has no memory. Each flip is independent — earlier results have zero effect on the next one. A run of heads feels like it tilts the odds, but the coin starts fresh every single time.

Another trap: confusing probability with certainty. A 90% chance of rain does not mean it will rain. It means that in similar conditions, it rains 9 out of 10 times. Living with probability means accepting that well-reasoned bets sometimes lose — and that's okay.