Intuition Lies About Chance

Your gut estimates of probability are systematically wrong. You overestimate rare events you heard about recently (plane crashes, shark attacks) and underestimate common ones (heart disease, car accidents). This is why lottery sales rise after jackpot stories and insurance sales rise after disasters.

Calibrated probability thinking separates good decisions from lucky ones. Poker pros, professional forecasters, and actuaries all train this skill deliberately — and outperform laypeople dramatically even though they have no more information at the moment of decision.