LESSON 2 · Probability & Luck
Classify Five Domains
For each one: Mediocristan or Extremistan? Human heights → Mediocristan. Billionaire wealth → Extremistan. Daily calories eaten → Mediocristan. Book sales → Extremistan. Running speeds at a local 5k → Mediocristan.
The test: if the single largest value would roughly double the total, you are in Extremistan. If it barely nudges the average, you are in Mediocristan.
Now look at your own life. Monthly expenses are Mediocristan; a once-a-year emergency repair is Extremistan. Rule of thumb: insure for Extremistan events, budget for Mediocristan ones.