Growth That Fools Us

In the legend of the wheat and chessboard, an inventor asks a king for 1 grain of wheat on the first square, 2 on the second, 4 on the third, doubling each square. The king laughs — until the math catches up. By square 64, the total tops 18 quintillion grains, more wheat than the world produces in roughly 1,000 years.

That is why people miss exponential threats. When COVID cases doubled every 3 days, a city with 100 cases reached 100,000 in about a month. Powers capture this compression: 2¹⁰ = 1,024 ≈ 1,000, so 2²⁰ ≈ 1 million and 2³⁰ ≈ 1 billion.