Most recessions share recognizable triggers. Financial bubbles bursting — housing in 2008, dot-com in 2001 — destroy wealth and confidence at once. Sudden oil price spikes have caused multiple recessions by raising costs across every industry.

Central bank mistakes are surprisingly common. Raising rates too aggressively can tip a slowing economy into contraction, while keeping them too low for too long inflates bubbles that eventually burst.

External shocks like pandemics, wars, and supply chain disruptions can overwhelm even healthy economies. COVID-19 showed that a non-economic event could trigger the sharpest recession in history.