Trade and Peace

Economists have long argued that trade reduces conflict. When countries depend on each other economically, war becomes more costly for both sides. The European Union began as a peace project built on economic integration.

The evidence is mixed but broadly supportive: strong trading partners rarely fight each other. But interdependence has limits. Russia's invasion of Ukraine shocked those who believed gas pipelines guaranteed peace. Trade raises the cost of conflict, but it cannot erase the human impulse toward aggression.