What Models Tell Us Now

The current generation of models, combining over thirty independent modeling groups worldwide, converges on several findings that shape policy:

• Staying below 1.5 degrees requires reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by about 2050
• Every fraction of a degree matters — impacts at 2 degrees are significantly worse than at 1.5
• Some changes, like sea level rise, will continue for centuries even after emissions stop, because ice sheets respond slowly
• The window for avoiding the worst outcomes is narrowing but has not yet closed

Models are tools, not prophets. They illuminate possible futures to guide present-day decisions.