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LESSON 5 · Think Like Sherlock

A Worked Example

Say you notice that good news keeps arriving in threes and you start to believe it. Run that hunch through the filters from the last screen.

  • Base rate — good things happen often, so by chance some will cluster. You only label a cluster once the third one lands.
  • Selective memory — you remember the tidy threes and quietly drop the twos, fours, and lonely ones.
  • Prediction — if the rule were real, you could name the third item before it arrived. You never can.

The pattern dissolves under one honest pass. That is the habit to build: when a pattern feels obvious, slow down and make it earn your trust before you act on it.