Plan for Several Futures

It sounds unnatural at first, but with practice it sharpens judgment under uncertainty. Instead of saying "the project will succeed," a probabilistic thinker says "a 70% chance of success, a 20% chance of partial delivery, and a 10% chance of failure." That forces you to prepare for each outcome rather than bet everything on one prediction.

Start small: before checking the weather, estimate the chance of rain yourself. Track your guesses over a few weeks to sharpen your judgment.