Put a Number on It

Try it with a real choice. Suppose you tell a friend you will "probably" make their party. Pin that down: "probably" is about a 70% chance. Now the vague word has teeth.

The difference between a good decision and a lucky one is invisible in any single instance. Over hundreds of decisions, the probabilistic thinker will dramatically outperform the certainty thinker because small accuracy advantages compound relentlessly.