The Uncertainty Problem

Nobody can know for sure whether we are in a bubble until after it bursts. Even the smartest investors in history have gotten the timing wrong — calling crashes too early and too late.

Markets can look overvalued for years before correcting, punishing anyone who exits too soon. They can also crash suddenly from levels that seemed fine weeks earlier. That is why market timing fails so often.

The most honest answer is simple: there are warning signs worth watching, but certainty is impossible. Anyone claiming to know for sure is either selling something or fooling themselves.