The Sanctions Dilemma

Policymakers face a hard trade-off: sanctions are often too weak to force change but too severe to ignore. Lifting them without concessions looks like weakness, while keeping them indefinitely causes humanitarian harm.

Weaponizing the dollar-based financial system also carries long-term risks. Countries watching sanctions hit others speed up their own work on alternative payment systems, which could fragment the global financial system.

The honest verdict is that sanctions are imperfect tools for imperfect situations: stronger than diplomatic protests, but weaker than military force.