Why Good Decisions Win

A decision can be correct even when the outcome is bad. If you take a bet with positive expected value and lose, you still made the right call. Over many repetitions, positive-EV decisions win out, even though any single one can go against you.

The key insight: judge the decision by its expected value, not by how it happened to turn out. A strong hand played correctly can still lose a single round. Over thousands of hands, skill — making positive-EV decisions — dominates luck.