The Average Outcome

Expected value is the long-run average you would get by repeating a gamble many times. A $2 lottery ticket that pays $1 million with 1-in-10-million odds has an expected value of just $0.10 — you pay $2 to win back a dime on average. Expected-value thinking turns emotional decisions into math.

Skilled poker players live by expected value too. They fold strong-looking hands when the math turns negative and call weak-looking ones when it turns positive — chasing the long-run average instead of any single pot. The discipline is the same everywhere: let the expected value, not the last result, drive the next decision.