The Gambler's Fallacy

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that past random events change the odds of future ones. After a roulette wheel lands on red five times in a row, people pile onto black, sure it is "due." But the wheel has no memory. Each spin is completely independent of every spin before it.

The intuition feels unshakeable because our brains are built to spot patterns, and that wiring misfires against true randomness. Casinos profit directly from this. The house edge grinds away on every bet, so a player on a "hot streak" who keeps doubling down is, over time, almost certain to give it all back.