Flip a Coin 200 Times

Get a coin and flip it 200 times. Record each result. Tally heads and tails every 20 flips to watch the running ratio.

You will see the pattern. Early ratios can swing wildly. By 200 flips, the percentage usually sits closer to 50% than it did at the start, but it can still land several points away. The convergence is slow, and it comes from sample size, not from the coin correcting itself.

Now look for streaks. A run of 5 heads in a row is common in 200 flips. Streaks feel unlikely because you remember them and forget the non-streaks. Seeing 200 flips laid out is the cheapest way to retrain your gut about what random actually looks like.