The Real Promotion Calculus

Promotions are not a reward for the hardest worker — they are a risk-transfer decision by leadership. The question in the room: can this person deliver at the next level, and will promoting them create more upside than risk? That frame changes everything.

Most people passed over were technically competent but risk-ambiguous. Leaders could not predict how they would behave with bigger scope. Your job is to remove every ambiguity a senior could raise out loud.