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LESSON 1 · Outsmart Your Own Biases

Looking at the Full Picture

To counter survivorship bias, deliberately seek out the missing data:

  • For every success story, ask: "How many tried the same thing and failed?"
  • Look for base rates — what percentage of people who attempt X actually succeed?
  • Be skeptical of "this is what successful people do" articles that ignore what unsuccessful people also do
  • Study failures as carefully as successes — they often share the same strategies
  • Remember that visibility is not evidence — you see winners because losers disappear.