LESSON 1 · Outsmart Your Own Biases
Looking at the Full Picture
To counter survivorship bias, deliberately seek out the missing data:
- For every success story, ask: "How many tried the same thing and failed?"
- Look for base rates — what percentage of people who attempt X actually succeed?
- Be skeptical of "this is what successful people do" articles that ignore what unsuccessful people also do
- Study failures as carefully as successes — they often share the same strategies
- Remember that visibility is not evidence — you see winners because losers disappear.