Best Explanation Wins

Abductive reasoning is the logic of best guesses. Given a set of observations, it asks: what explanation would make these most likely? Many logicians argue that Sherlock Holmes, despite the famous label, reasons by abduction rather than deduction.

A patient presents with symptoms, and the doctor generates a ranked list of possible explanations, then tests the most probable first. The diagnosis that wins is not proven — it is the one that best fits the evidence given.