LESSON 3 · Reason Like a Philosopher
Abductive conclusions are always tentative. Unlike deduction, which produces certainty, or induction, which produces probability, abduction gives you the best guess given current evidence. New evidence can flip the conclusion entirely, so a skilled reasoner holds it loosely, ready to update.
Doctors call this the differential diagnosis, revised as test results arrive. A mechanic does the same with a strange noise, and so does every detective and scientist. The skill is not locking into the first plausible answer — it is keeping alternatives alive until the evidence forces a choice.