The Scenario Approach

Climate models do not predict the future. They answer "what if" questions. What if emissions continue growing? What if they peak in 2030 and decline? What if revolutionary technology removes carbon from the atmosphere? Each scenario produces a different climate trajectory.

Critics sometimes point to the high scenario and argue that climate models are alarmist. But the high scenario is explicitly labeled as a worst case, not a prediction. The fact that it appears in the range does not mean scientists expect it to happen.