Models and Decisions

Climate models are not academic exercises — they drive trillions of dollars in infrastructure investment, insurance pricing, agricultural planning, and military strategy. The Pentagon uses climate projections for base planning, and insurers adjust premiums based on flood and wildfire models.

When critics dismiss models as unreliable, they ignore that every major industry already relies on them. The real question is how to use them wisely — playing to their strengths and treating outputs as risk assessments rather than prophecies. Plan for the worst case, hope for a better one. That is rational decision-making under uncertainty.