Calibrate Your Confidence

The goal is not to be right more often — it is to be calibrated. A calibrated forecaster who says "70% chance" turns out to be right about 70% of the time. A poorly calibrated one might say "70%" and be right only 40% of the time, or 95%.

To measure your own calibration, make predictions with explicit percentages for a few months, then check them. Most people find they are overconfident on things they feel strongly about and underconfident on things outside their wheelhouse. Calibration is a skill you can train, and the gains compound across every decision you make.